Items by By NATE SILVER
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FiveThirtyEight: A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities
Posted: March 6th, 2012, 12:29pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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The line between a resplendent night for Mitt Romney and a suspect one is relatively slim.
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FiveThirtyEight: A Guide to Super Tuesday Possibilities
Posted: March 6th, 2012, 12:29pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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The line between a resplendent night for Mitt Romney and a suspect one is relatively slim.
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FiveThirtyEight: After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call
Posted: February 28th, 2012, 12:22pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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An apparent last-minute rebound by Rick Santorum means that Michigan is, indeed, a tossup.
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What Obama Should Do Next
Posted: February 15th, 2012, 8:54am EST by By NATE SILVER
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The improving economy has boosted Obama’s chances of re-election. Now it’s a matter of how much he’s willing and able to pit the poor against the rich.
NYT > Sports
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Off the Dribble: Putting Lin's Streak in Historical Context
Posted: February 11th, 2012, 4:27pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Since the 1985-86 season, 41 players have had a four-game streak similar to Jeremy Lin's for the Knicks, according to basketball-reference.com.
NYT > Business
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Obama’s Magic Number May Be 150,000 Jobs Per Month
Posted: February 4th, 2012, 12:57am EST by By NATE SILVER
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With 243,000 jobs created in January, the economy is starting to look more positive. That might be a plus for the president in the November election.
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: FiveThirtyEight: Live-Coverage of the Florida Primary
Posted: January 31st, 2012, 8:41pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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On FiveThirtyEight’s live blog of Florida’s Republican primary, we’ll be bringing you data-driven observations, exit poll information and some historical perspective.
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FiveThirtyEight: Florida Primary Overview and Forecast
Posted: January 31st, 2012, 7:44am EST by By NATE SILVER
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The final FiveThirtyEight forecast model for Florida shows Mitt Romney winning the primary by 15 points.
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FiveThirtyEight: Advantage Romney in February, but Risks Abound
Posted: January 29th, 2012, 7:00am EST by By NATE SILVER
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A spin around the primaries and caucuses for February.
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FiveThirtyEight: FiveThirtyEight: Live Coverage of South Carolina Primary
Posted: January 21st, 2012, 8:25pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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We’ll be bringing you data-driven observations from the South Carolina primary.
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FiveThirtyEight: Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast
Posted: January 19th, 2012, 2:24pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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The FiveThirtyEight model now shows Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in a virtual tie in South Carolina, with each having about a 50 percent chance of winning the primary.
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FiveThirtyEight: A First Iowa Forecast: Race Is Still Wide Open
Posted: December 13th, 2011, 7:19pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, the polling data looks good for Newt Gingrich.
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FiveThirtyEight: Bill Buckner Strikes Again
Posted: September 29th, 2011, 6:37am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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When confronted with the statistical improbability of the Red Sox’ wild card race failure, one should have the license to turn to divine and karmatic explanations.
NYT > Sports
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FiveThirtyEight: September Collapse of Red Sox Could Be Worst Ever
Posted: September 27th, 2011, 10:23am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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The Red Sox collapse — if it comes to fruition — might rank as high as the second or third worst of all time, rivaling that of the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers and the 2007 New York Mets.
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The Quad: Geography of College Football Fans (and Realignment Chaos)
Posted: September 19th, 2011, 6:50pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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The possible realignment of college football conferences raises a host of interesting questions about fan loyalty.
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Straight Sets: Can Federer Win Another Slam Title?
Posted: September 12th, 2011, 7:00am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Four players won one after turning 30.
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: Pondering Perry’s Electability
Posted: August 17th, 2011, 1:38pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is enjoying popular support, but the Republican establishment seems to want to hedge its bets against him.
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FiveThirtyEight: The Fine Print on the Debt Deal
Posted: August 1st, 2011, 2:20pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Democrats will find that the deal struck by Congress and the president is a bit better than it appears at first glance.
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FiveThirtyEight: G.O.P.’s No-Tax Stance Is Outside Political Mainstream
Posted: July 13th, 2011, 6:53pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Polls suggest that the Democrats are on the right side of public opinion in the fiscal debate.
NYT > Sports
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FiveThirtyEight: Calling Foul on N.B.A.'s Claims of Financial Distress
Posted: July 5th, 2011, 6:37pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Independent estimates of the N.B.A. financial condition reflect a league which has an uneven distribution of revenues between teams — but which is fundamentally a healthy and profitable business.
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: Calling Foul on N.B.A.'s Claims of Financial Distress
Posted: July 5th, 2011, 6:37pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Independent estimates of the N.B.A. financial condition reflect a league which has an uneven distribution of revenues between teams — but which is fundamentally a healthy and profitable business.
NYT > Sports
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FiveThirtyEight: As Mets’ Image Slumps, So Does Attendance
Posted: May 31st, 2011, 9:33pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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The Mets' poor attendance is accelerating in a downward trend, which could reflect a lack of confidence in the team's owner and its future prospects.
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: As Mets’ Image Slumps, So Does Attendance
Posted: May 31st, 2011, 9:33pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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The Mets' poor attendance is accelerating in a downward trend, which could reflect a lack of confidence in the team's owner and its future prospects.
NYT > Sports
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FiveThirtyEight: When 15th Is Better Than 8th: The Math Shows the Bracket Is Backward
Posted: March 16th, 2011, 12:48am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Is a team in the N.C.A.A. tournament better off as a 15th seed than an 8th?
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: When 15th Is Better Than 8th: The Math Shows the Bracket Is Backward
Posted: March 16th, 2011, 12:48am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Is a team in the N.C.A.A. tournament better off as a 15th seed than an 8th?
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FiveThirtyEight: A Graphical Overview of the 2012 Republican Field
Posted: February 4th, 2011, 1:14pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Mapping the potential candidates on left-right and insider-outsider axes sheds light on the dynamics of the race.
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FiveThirtyEight: Bullish Blue Dogs Oppose Health Care Repeal
Posted: January 20th, 2011, 12:24am EST by By NATE SILVER
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Some moderate Democrats who voted against the health care bill opposed an attempt to repeal it.
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FiveThirtyEight: The Chicken, The Egg, The Media and Sarah Palin
Posted: January 18th, 2011, 1:03am EST by By NATE SILVER
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Palin stirs passions among many people, and that could be problematic for someone with national ambitions.
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FiveThirtyEight: To Understand Assassination Threat, Look Beyond Tucson
Posted: January 10th, 2011, 8:57pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Beware of overgeneralizing from one horrific act: however much we may learn about how and why it happened, it is just one data point.
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FiveThirtyEight: Hispanic-Majority Districts: Boon or Burden for Democrats?
Posted: December 23rd, 2010, 11:26pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Trying to gauge what the creation of more Hispanic-majority districts will mean for the Democrats.
NYT > Sports
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FiveThirtyEight: Jeter’s Predictable Predicament
Posted: November 24th, 2010, 12:45pm EST by By NATE SILVER
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Assessing the value of Derek Jeter, now that the beloved player is negotiating his next contract.
NYT > Home Page
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FiveThirtyEight: Consensus Points to 50-Seat G.O.P. Gain in House, But Uncertainty Remains
Posted: October 16th, 2010, 8:36am EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Extent of the "enthusiasm gap" may play a big role in determining how successful the Republicans are.
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More on Murkowski’s Math
Posted: September 18th, 2010, 7:16pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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What would Ms. Murkowski's chances be if she were listed on the ballot as an independent against Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams? How might those chances be impacted by the fact that she is not listed on the ballot, but instead is a write-in candidate?
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On Many Democrats’ Web Sites, Agenda Is Vague
Posted: September 7th, 2010, 12:19pm EDT by By NATE SILVER
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Democrats are having trouble articulating a clear set of policy goals, a study of campaign Web sites suggests.